EVLI Allocation View vom 01.04.2026

• Signs of a potential turning point in the Iran war. We believe the probability of the conflict coming to an end has increased. The war has now lasted over a month, and U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled his willingness to withdraw from the conflict. However, Iran has remained firm and the Strait of Hormuz has stayed closed. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his country has the “necessary will” to end the conflict. Iran’s key demand is that it will not be subjected to the use of force going forward. Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the war within the next two to three weeks, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Despite these more positive signals, the risk of the conflict continuing remains elevated.
   
• We are upgrading equities from a slight overweight to overweight and reducing exposure to money markets and fixed income. We believe a turning point toward de-escalation has taken place. Our base case has been that the conflict would remain short-lived, as neither side has an incentive for a prolonged war. Trump has sought to end the conflict for several weeks and has signaled readiness to withdraw even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The missing piece has been Iran’s willingness to end the conflict. Iran’s negotiating position has strengthened day by day as the strait has remained closed. We interpret the president’s statement as a sign that Iran believes it has achieved sufficient leverage. We acknowledge that the risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains significant and are ready to adjust our view if progress stalls. The nature of the conflict calls for a tactical approach to asset management.
   
• European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde has indicated that the decision to raise the deposit rate will depend on the impact of the Iran war. Market pricing currently implies around a 40% probability of a rate hike at the April 30 meeting. According to preliminary data, euro area inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February. The Iran war is pushing inflation higher while weighing on economic growth. The economic impact of the war depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil prices elevated. The ECB is also keen to avoid repeating the policy mistake made during the pandemic, when inflation was initially misjudged as transitory.
   
• We overweight equities and underweight money markets. Within equities, we overweight EM equities and remain neutral elsewhere. Within equity themes, we emphasize European industrials. In fixed income investments, we overweight high yield corporate bonds and underweight government bonds and remain neutral on emerging market bonds and investment grade corporate bonds.

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