EVLI Allocation View vom 02.09.2026

EVLI Fund Management

The main points of the allocation meeting on September 02, 2026

Equity markets posted broad gains last week, before a hawkish speech by the U.S. Federal Reserve System (Fed) and Middle East tensions hit markets over the weekend. Japan rose 2.0% and Finland 1.7%, while world equities (EUR) gained 1.1%. US and European equities both added 0.5%, and emerging market (EM) equities (EUR) rose 0.5% as well.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech on Friday sharply lifted rate expectations. Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's 2% inflation target and said the central bank still has "work to do" unless underlying inflation moves clearly toward Fed's objective at sufficient speed. September rate-hike pricing jumped from 36% to 58% by Friday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.75% by Monday's close, its highest level since January 2025. The repricing was global: 10-year Japanese government bond yields approached 3% for the first time since 1996, and German Bund yields reached their highest level since 2011.

The US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend for the first time since late July, escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The US struck IRGC targets on Larak Island, and Iran responded with attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. Oil and gold prices, which had fallen last week (WTI crude -5.6%, gold -3.2%), reversed course as the conflict escalated, with Brent crude rising to $90.49 per barrel by Monday's close. European natural gas prices also rose to €69.81/MWh, their highest level since January 2023. Commodities finished last week down 0.2%, and the euro weakened 0.8% against the dollar.

The week ahead brings the US August employment report and a wave of tech earnings. Friday's report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will be the next major test for rate expectations following Warsh's hawkish tone. Wednesday brings results from Broadcom and Snowflake, testing semiconductor and cloud demand.

We overweight equities and underweight money markets. Within equities, we overweight EM equities, underweight European equities, and remain neutral elsewhere. In fixed income investments, we overweight high yield corporate bonds and underweight government bonds, while remaining neutral on emerging market bonds and investment grade corporate bonds.

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