EVLI Allocation View vom 07.10.2026

EVLI Fund Management

The main points of the allocation meeting on October 07, 2026

Concerns over euro area sovereign debt grew out of France, and the pressure spread to Italy, the euro and corporate credit. The spread between French and German 10-year yields widened by 32bp over the week to 141bp. The trigger was the French government's 2027 budget proposal, presented on Thursday, which aims to bring the deficit back to 5% of GDP. Investors doubt the government can get it through parliament. Italy's spread over Germany also widened, and the euro weakened 1.2% against the dollar. Euro area high yield spreads widened.

A surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report led markets to scale back rate-hike expectations. The U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, against expectations of 133,000. Even so, the unemployment rate edged up only slightly to 4.2%. Over the week, the market-implied probability of a Fed hike in October fell from 64% to 23%. The ECB has already raised its deposit rate twice this year, to 2.50%, and the probability of a further ECB hike fell from 42% to 14%.

We maintain our equity overweight, as the fundamental backdrop remains strong. U.S. growth has held up well. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 2.2%, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model tracks third-quarter growth at 3.7%, despite weak job creation in September. The third-quarter earnings season starts in the U.S. on October 13, and expectations have risen during the quarter. S&P 500 earnings are now forecast to grow 29.5% year-over-year, up from 26.7% at the end of June. A record 72 companies have issued positive EPS guidance, which is 62% of those guiding, against a five-year average of 40%. Seasonality is supportive as well: since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in the fourth quarter in 61 of 76 years, with an average gain of about 4.2%.

We overweight equities and underweight money markets. Within equities, we overweight emerging market equities, underweight European equities, and remain neutral elsewhere. In fixed income investments, we overweight high yield corporate bonds and underweight government bonds, while remaining neutral on emerging market bonds and investment grade corporate bonds.

Fonds von EVLI kaufen Sie über FondsSuperMarkt zu besonders günstigen Konditionen!

  1. Dauerhaft 100% Rabatt auf den Ausgabeaufschlag
  2. Kostenloses Depot
  3. Keine Transaktionskosten
  4. Sichere Verwahrung in Ihrem persönlichen Depot bei einer deutschen Depotbank

mehr erfahren

Rechtlicher Hinweis

This report is intended only for the client's personal and private use. This report is based on sources that Evli Plc considers to be correct and reliable. However, neither Evli Plc nor its employees give any guarantee concerning the correctness, accuracy or completeness of any information, views, opinions, estimates or forecasts presented in this report, nor are they liable for any or all direct or indirect damage caused by the use of this publication. Evli is not responsible for any material or information produced or published by a third party that may be contained in this report. The information provided in the report is not intended as investment advice, or as a solicitation to buy, subscribe or sell any financial instruments. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Publication and distribution of this report in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law or other applicable regulation. In particular, this publication may not be copied, distributed, or published in the USA, and it is not intended for citizens of the USA. Persons into whose possession this report comes are required to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions. This publication, or any part thereof, may not be copied, distributed or published in any form without Evli Plc's prior written consent. All rights reserved.

Zurück