EVLI Allocation View vom 10.06.2026

The main points of the allocation meeting

• The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at tomorrow’s meeting. The war with Iran has weakened the euro area’s growth outlook while adding to inflationary pressures. In May, inflation accelerated to 3.2% from 3.0% in April, remaining well above the ECB’s 2% target. Markets have already fully priced in the rate hike, meaning attention will primarily be on comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde. We do not expect the ECB to provide strong guidance on future rate decisions, but rather to emphasize that decisions will remain data-dependent and be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Euribor futures are currently pricing in a total of three rate hikes this year.
   
• We are reducing our equity overweight. Global equity markets have rallied strongly in recent weeks, with much of the advance concentrated in technology stocks. In the United States, technology companies now account for more than 50% of total stock market capitalization. As a result, the risk of a short-term market correction has increased. However, we remain positive on the 6–12 month outlook for equities. According to consensus forecasts, global economic growth is expected to remain solid at 2.6% this year. Growth is being supported by strong corporate investment and a recovery in manufacturing activity. Corporate earnings prospects also remain highly favorable, with analysts continuing to revise forecasts upward. We furthermore expect data center investment to continue growing rapidly and demand for AI-related services to remain strong, supporting equity markets over the medium term.
   
• SpaceX will go public on Friday. Elon Musk's space and artificial intelligence company is raising $75 billion in its IPO at a valuation of $1.77 trillion. The listing could make Musk, the company’s largest shareholder, the world’s first trillionaire. SpaceX will not be eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 for at least one year, as the index requires, among other criteria, profitability and a minimum of 12 months of trading history. The company could, however, be added to the Nasdaq-100 as soon as 15 trading days after its listing, forcing Nasdaq index funds to begin purchasing the stock almost immediately. Its initial index weight will be small, however, as the company’s free float is estimated to represent less than 5% of total shares outstanding.
   
• We overweight equities and underweight money markets. Within equities, we overweight EM equities, underweight European equities, and remain neutral elsewhere. In fixed income investments, we overweight high yield corporate bonds and underweight government bonds, while remaining neutral on emerging market bonds and investment grade corporate bonds.

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