EVLI Allocation View vom 15.04.2026

• The US and Iranian negotiation positions appear to have converged. The key issues of contention include Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, and frozen assets. A likely compromise could involve freezing Iran’s nuclear program for several years, in exchange for the United States easing sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian assets. From Iran’s perspective, the real strategic lever remains the Strait of Hormuz. The implicit deadline for negotiations involves global oil inventories that will become meaningfully stretched possibly by early May.
   
• The United States has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports. The blockade is, in itself, a constructive development, because the alternative means of pressuring Iran would have been a resumption of military operations. Our view remains that the duration and damage of the conflict will prove limited. We acknowledge, however, a meaningful risk that the conflict proves more prolonged and more damaging than stock markets currently price.
   
• Equity markets have largely recovered from their war-related declines. In contrast long-term interest rates have declined only modestly, suggesting that bond markets are pricing the duration and impact of the conflict more cautiously than equities. We are closely monitoring this divergence in our asset allocation decisions. Brent crude has fallen back below 100 dollars per barrel. The euro has strengthened against the dollar, and the probability of European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike has declined from above 80 percent to below 25 percent. We expect a strong earnings season, particularly in the United States and emerging markets led by technology companies driven by AI. Markets will also look for guidance on the potential adverse effects of the Iran conflict.
   
• We overweight equities and underweight money markets. Within equities, we overweight EM equities and remain neutral elsewhere. Within equity themes, we emphasize European industrials. In fixed income investments, we overweight high yield corporate bonds and underweight government bonds and remain neutral on emerging market bonds and investment grade corporate bonds.

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