EVLI Allocation View vom 26.03.2026

• U.S. President Donald Trump stepped back from his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure. He referred to ongoing negotiations, which Iran denied. It is unlikely, however, that there is no communication channel between Iran and Washington. The economic damage caused by the conflict depends entirely on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, as roughly one-fifth of global oil flows through it. Trump’s messaging suggests that the U.S. willingness to continue the conflict has diminished. Ultimately, however, the decision to end the conflict will be made in Tehran, not Washington.
• The war in Iran is effectively a negotiation between the United States and Iran. Iran views the conflict as existential and is seeking guarantees that it will not face future strikes from the U.S. and Israel. Following the humiliating 12-day war during the summer of 2025, Iran has prepared for prolonged conflict by decentralizing its command structure and treating the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as essential to establishing credible deterrence. Iran appears willing to prolong the closure until it gains sufficient leverage in negotiations. We believe the conflict will ultimately be resolved through negotiations, limiting the damage to the global economy, although there is a clear risk that a prolonged conflict would result in significant economic harm.
• If the war in Iran drags on, it will push up inflation and weaken economic growth. Around 20% of global oil and natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices fuel inflation and weigh on growth. If the crisis persists, household real incomes will decline, industrial costs will rise, and the probability of a global recession will increase. The impact on Europe is greater than on the United States, while energy-importing countries such as India and Japan are hit the hardest. Uncertainty around inflation driven by higher energy prices has also influenced central banks’ policy outlooks. Markets are currently not pricing in any rate changes by the Federal Reserve this year, while the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates up to three times.
• We overweight equities and underweight money markets. Within equities, we overweight EM equities and remain neutral elsewhere. Within equity themes, we emphasize European industrials. In fixed income investments, we overweight high yield corporate bonds and underweight government bonds and remain neutral on emerging market bonds and investment grade corporate bonds.

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