The good news about bad markets

UBS Macro Monthly - November 2022


  • 2022 is shaping up to be one of the worst years on record for 60/40 portfolios.
  • The silver lining is that expected returns going forward have improved substantially compared to mid-2021.
  • Our five-year expected annual return for a 60/40 portfolio has risen from 3.3% to 7.2% in nominal terms and from 1.2% to 4.4% in real terms since July 2021.
  • Better valuations in equities, higher coupons on fixed income and an expected mean reversion of the US dollar over time are the primary drivers of the improvement in our return projections.

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