UBS Macro Monthly - November 2021

Thinking long term about surging short term rates

  • The rates market has priced in earlier and sooner central bank rate hikes, but remains pessimistic on how much central banks will ultimately be able to tighten this cycle.
  • This implies pessimism on medium-term growth. We disagree with market pricing and view the backdrop for economic growth this cycle as structurally better than the last one.
  • We believe that, into next year, the combination of surging incomes, strong household and corporate balance sheets and robust capital investment will translate into a smooth handoff from public to private sector led growth.
  • This backdrop implies an underweight to government bonds and focus on the more cyclical areas of the global equity market, such as regions like Europe and Japan and sectors like energy and financials.

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