Navigating the US debt drama

UBS Macro Monthly - Juni 2023


  • Negotiations are likely to conclude with a last-minute deal to raise the debt ceiling that increases fiscal drag starting in October, in our view.
  • We believe a US government default on Treasury debt obligations is very unlikely even in the event that Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling; these payments would likely be prioritized.
  • Market volatility is poised to rise in the near term as we approach the June 1 ’X-date.’
  • Given earnings and economic resilience, global stocks may become more attractive if left-tail risks on the debt ceiling fail to materialize.

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