No painless pivot for risk assets

UBS Macro Monthly - August 2022

  • In our view, the recent advance in global equities is a bear market rally, not the start of a new bull run.
  • Earnings expectations do not reflect the retrenchment of goods-sector activity or reduction in household spending power.
  • We believe the Federal Reserve will not shift from tightening to easing without substantial economic pain.
  • Valuations are still on the expensive side, and recession risks are above-average.
  • We are staying underweight stocks and using selloffs in bonds as an opportunity to increase exposure to sovereign fixed income.

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