Positioning for a “slow” slowdown

UBS Macro Monthly - Mai 2023


  • Despite periods of elevated volatility this year, major asset classes remain within the ranges they have been in for months. Most of the action has been under the surface of major indexes.
  • This range-bound price action largely reflects the dichotomy of a more robust economy than most expected, facing off against central banks determined to defeat high inflation.
  • US stocks are pricing in a soft landing, while bonds are pricing in too much recession risk, in our view. As the economy remains resilient, we see yields drifting higher and the growth-heavy S&P 500 moving lower in the near term.
  • Overall, we broadly favor: international equities relative to the US; a weaker US dollar; and emerging market credit. − The key risk to our economic outlook is a failure of the US government to raise the debt ceiling by the X-date.

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