2022: The year of pent-up production
- In our view, a key theme in 2022 will be production catching up to strong demand.
- Global manufacturing surveys suggest conditions for production are improving,while rebounding auto production indicates subsiding shortages.−Better public health outcomes after Omicron will likely drive more labor markethealing.
- Strong growth in output should also allow developed market central banks toreduce monetary stimulus, pushing bond yields higher and weighing on equityvaluations.
- However, strong earnings growth means equities should still advance this year, withbetter performance from cyclically-oriented regions and sectors.
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