UBS Macro Monthly - March 2021

Key macro curves confirm more procyclical strength

We believe that we have found ample evidence to support our risk-on, procyclical bias and optimism on the global economic recovery.


  • Procyclical positioning continues to work across markets. As multi-asset investors, we look across the investable universe for confirmation that the broad macro and market backdrop remains supportive.
  • Three market-based curves stand out to us as confirming that there is more room to run: a steepening yield curve, backwardated commodities curve, and overly cautious VIX futures curve support our positioning.
  • After a slow start, a steeper 'vaccination curve' indicates progress towards normalization accelerating.
  • We continue to watch these curves, along with other economic and market indicators, for evidence that the backdrop is shifting or already priced in. As this happens, we plan to shift positioning accordingly.

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