The yield curve: more noise than signal
The spread between two and 10-year Treasury bond yields is not a very effective tool for near-term economic forecasting or tactical asset allocation decisions
Highlights
- We believe that the spread between two and 10-year Treasury bond yields is not a very effective tool for near-term economic forecasting or tactical asset allocation decisions.
- Though growth is decelerating, economic fundamentals remain robust, and recession risk is low, in our view.
- We have closed our short position on government bonds following the sharp rise in yields linked to aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve.
- On global equities, we are neutral at the index level and favor cyclicals that are overly discounting recession risk or have structural upside, as well as higher-quality and defensive pockets of the market where profit growth should remain resilient.
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